I don't believe in the no-win worst case scenario

Back before Christmas I set a followup to this report on Global News by CP presstitute Shawn Jeffords:

New projections show infections in the province continue to rise and “hard” lockdowns of four to six weeks could bring cases down to less than 1,000 a day.

Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, co-chair of the province’s COVID-19 science advisory table, said anything less than a four-week lockdown will not work, based on the experience of other jurisdictions.

“Hard lockdown, a very stringent lockdown, with very strong communication, of four to six weeks can reduce case numbers in Ontario,” he said. “The duration of lockdown is very important.”
It's all the same bullshit you've seen before: only four week lockdowns work (despite the Wuhan Flu having a two week incubation period) but those 4 weeks need to be extended to 4 months before you can sneeze.
Brown said that if Ontario’s COVID-19 case rate continues to grow between one to three per cent, the province will have 3,000 to 5,000 daily cases by the end of January.

If the province sees “substantial growth” of seven per cent, Ontario will have 30,000 daily cases.

The new projections show that under all scenarios the province will see 300 intensive care unit beds filled within 10 days — double the 150-bed threshold where surgeries must be cancelled.
If you watched the report on Global television, you heard this part emphasized:
Under a worst-case-scenario, ICU occupancy could hit 1,500 beds by mid-January.

Well seeing how it's mid-January now I figured we should look into how things are looking. The first thing I noticed from the Ontario data is that on December 21st, the day of this report, there were 265 ICU patients, so we weren't talking about an explosion: notice that like all lying enemies of the people, Jeffords' report never mentioned the current levels were almost at 300 and indeed implied they were below the 150. Indeed, they hit 300 ICU patients on December 29th, and on the magical tenth day (December 31st) they were at 337.

So from 265 to 300 in ten days and from 300 to 1500 in the two weeks afterwards. So as of January 13th what were the ICU numbers in Ontario? 385.

In other words, their "worst case scenario" didn't even remotely come to pass. It was all fearmongering lies to make you demand Ford take stricter action to unfairly restrict the freedom of even more of your fellow citizens.

So just as the last "worst case scenario" fearporn was proven incorrect, get ready for Round Two:

Although the projections by Ontario's scientific advisers were presented to cabinet on Friday, the information is not slated to be made public until Tuesday.

Multiple sources who have seen the modelling tell CBC News it includes:

  • Forecasts putting the province on track to report a daily average of 6,000 new cases of COVID-19 before the end of January.

So 6000 new cases by the "end of January". Scary, eh? But wait, Adalsteinn Brown (who claims to be a doctor) said in late December that cases could be 3000-5000 by the end of January. So which is it?

In early January cases broke 3000 per day, and other than a couple of days of 4000 spikes have settled around that level ever since. So their model widely overestimated ICU requirements while getting cases relatively close. But then they throw it all down the memory hole and expect us to live in fear with the second "sobering" data.

As I've mentioned many a time, if you looked at conservative media like Third Edge of the Sword or Breitbart or PJ Media since last January you'd see forecasts that more closely followed reality than any official models.

They never improve the models. They just hope that the Gell-Mann Effect lures you in again. When you see these people in the streets, spit in their eye.