(This post will remain at the top of this blog until Sunday December 3rd...scroll down for new content)
It's crunch time again. Same as I did last week I present a nice sticky post with a quick Morton-ruling-Alberta image in order to promote Ted for PC leader.
This time I would like to speak a little bit about Morton versus the alternatives.
Jim Dinning has more connections to Paul Martin than just his financing habits: both were successful Finance Ministers with significant problems with charisma ["worse than Stockwell Day" is what that means... -ed] and little or no leadership talents. They both figured that the leadership should be their own practically by default, and while possessing a lot of support from both party machinations and well financed bigwigs [in Martin's case, a bigwig named "Jim Dinning" as it so happened. -ed], the actual party membership was relatively cool on them.
In the Alberta PC case, the membership voted with their cool-ness, possibly with Paul Martin in mind. The end result is the rather confusing 3-way race we have in front of us. Morton for the moderate right wing of the party, Dinning for the far-left extremism wing of the party, and Ed Stelmach for the appeasement wing of the party.
Morton supporters have made YouTube a Morton-paradise, with all of these great pro-Morton videos (with liberal comments):
Ted Morton talks about the Alberta Agenda
Ted Morton talks about private clinics
Ted Morton takes a stand on equalization
Ted Morton's plan for health care reform
Ted Morton on the importance of health care reform
Ted Morton shows why democratic reform is important
Ted Morton's plan for democratic reform
Contrast this with:
Video results for 'ed stelmach'
No Videos found for 'ed stelmach'
I've already ran down the YouTube videos dedicated to Dinning. Always worth another look
Noise from the Right has done a nice little 2-part series about Dinning's "big speech" last week. Part One is here. Part Two is here
All in all, there will be a new Premier crowned by the time I put a new post to this blog on Sunday. The question is going to be who, and how. From what I understand it, here is the system step by step:
- Whoever has the most first place votes is in first place. If the percentage of first place votes he has is 50%+1, he will be the new Premier of the glorious Republic of Alberta.
- If first place does not have 50%+1, the first place person shall be known as "first place", and the person with the second highest number of first place votes shall become "second place".
- The new Premier will be one of the two men in first and second place. Third place has no chance of assuming Ralph's throne.
- The ballots for the first place voter are collected and tallied up. The ballots which indicated first place for either of the two men in first and second place are no longer factoring into any calculations.
- Of the ballots who chose the candidate in "third place" as their first choice, a count will be taken of who they selected as their second choice. These totals will be added to the first place votes each of the "first place" and "second place" men already tallied.
- After the second place ballots from the "third place" candidate are added to the tallies of the first two candidates, the totals shall be compared. Whoever has the largest number after this sum is taken shall be the new Premier.
Do I have predictions? Not really. Morton is unlikely to place first on this ballot, but highly likely to place second. In that event, the question becomes who is the second choice of Stelmach voters...hopefully Morton. Another possibility, not as strong but the 2nd most likely, is for Morton to be 3rd place and Stelmach to climb up to #2 on the strength of his recent endorsements. This isn't actually a half-bad position for Morton to be in. While he doesn't get to become Premier, Stelmach is unlikely to be a long-term guy for the job, particularly if Lorne Gunter's take on him is accurate:
The real advantage in a "Morton as 3rd" showing is that whoever becomes Premier (likely Stelmach, as I doubt many Morton supporters would support Dinning in Round 2) will be beholden to Morton's support for his ascention. The third place in this situation, being the man who's voters elected the Premier, is truely the "kingmaker" role where favour will have to be curried. While Stelmach influences on a Morton Premiership would be far better than Morton influences on a Stelmach Premiership, its still not a halfways-horrendous position to be in. What would obviously be the best, and not particularly likely, showing for Morton would be a first place win over Dinning. Either right-away or applied to Stelmach's ballots, it would be a wonderful coup for Dinning. As a bonus, we get people like Red Gary Mar.
He is far and away the dullest candidate. A good man and minister, he is nonetheless as boring as Ken Dryden on the stump. (Well, maybe not quite THAT boring, but dull, dull, dull.) In this media age, an internal party vote might be able to overlook the lack of personality, but in a general election campaign his blandness would be deadly.
What would the PC party be without Gary Mar? Well, a whole lot better. Mar's electability outside the party is probably fairly limited. The Liberals might try to lure him, but even if he keeps his seat, Morton can promote how he cleansed that socialist lunatic from cabinet and score another swath of votes in other ridings. It's really a small price to pay...likewise the loss of Dave Hancock. I'm sure Mark Norris could win a riding again and be the northern representative of Morton's government. In either regard, as Gunter points out, 15% of Tory votes already bled into the Alberta Alliance last election. While most of those ridings were still won by the Conservatives (only 1 fell to the Alliance), turning Tory votes into Tory + Alliance votes will make more of a difference in several ridings than Tory - Liberal votes would end up.Still, these various scenarios still depend on one critical event: Saturday's vote. Click here if you're planing on voting for Morton on Saturday to learn where and when you may do so. If you aren't planning on voting for Morton, kindly leave my province before I take actions that one day will result in the existence of this Wikipedia entry. (If somebody wants to create it, that would actually be kind of cool).
Other recent election posts from other blogs. Some of this is very interesting, but only one of these blogs reveals to us that along with little Orphan Annie, "The Edmonton gay and lesbian community supports Jim Dinning":
The Prairie Wranglers: Alberta in deficit range, and the potential Kings
Rusty Idols: My Endorsement: Ted Morton
BumfOnline: Scary Teddy and his priorities
ABFreedom: The LIEberal, Dinning, runs out of fuel, and begins attacks.
AlbertaTory: Ask and ye shall receive
Phendrana Drifts: another debate
What it takes to win...: Voters have spoken. Norris is out
ThePolitic.com: Dinning Attack - “Ted Morton’s Alberta is not my Alberta”
The Next Alberta Premier: Morton the Clear Winner of 2nd PC Leadership Debate
The Next Alberta Premier: Why Ted Morton will be Premier
Climbing Out of the Dark: I'm Supportin, Ted Morton
What's Wrong with Healthcare?: Naomi and the Left Versus Ted Morton
Ken Chapman: Front Runners Campaign on "Anybody But" and "Let's Kick Some Butt"
striving against opposition: I support Ted Morton
Toronto Tories: Canada NEEDS Morton!
Le Revue Gauche: Ted Morton Calgary Seperatist
Quest for Quivira: Vote for Jim
The Black Kettle: Supportin' a revolution
nnseek: Why I'm Supportin' Morton
Hobbs is "Right": Morton Momentum
Hobbs is "Right": Vote for Ted in the Advanced Polls
ThePolitic.com: Licia Corbella endorses Morton
The Enlightened Savage: Anne, Anne, Anne...
The Enlightened Savage: Let’s get ready to RUMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMBLE!
Jonathan Williams - The Blog: Leadership debate a review
Dispatches from the Socialist Gulag: The Yutz, the Dud, & the polarizer
Small Dead Animals: "Bad Boy" Province?
CIVITATENSIS: Morton Reassures Alberta Conservatives
Here of course are my two post-ballot posts about the PC Leadership Race:
Qapla' (sorta)
The graphic that JimDinning.com would pay money to have (and will have to, since I can't afford it)
Finally, if you need any other reason to vote for Ted Morton, know that it will royally piss off Vue Weekly!
