It's Kentucky Derby day, and you know what that means! Another attempt to predict the winner of the most exciting two minutes in sports.
Year | My choice | Actual result |
Mor Spirit, Mohaymen, Nyquist, Lani | Nyquist, Exaggerator, Gun Runner, Mohaymen | |
Lookin At Lee, State of Honour, Irish War Cry | Always Dreaming, Lookin At Lee, Battle of Midway, Classic Empire | |
Magnum Moon, Justify, Bolt d’Oro, Audible | Justify, Good Magic, Audible, Instilled Regard | |
War of Will, Vekoma, Tacitus |
| |
Rock Your World, Sainthood, Midnight Bourbon, Essential Quality, Known Agenda |
| |
White Abarrio, Messier, Zandon, Tawny Port, Epicenter | Rich Strike, Epicenter, Zandon, Simplification |
Okay, so I'm kind of terrible at this. 2016, my first year at trying, might actually be my best one, with 2018 (ironically) behind it.
So with that in mind, let's try again. Here's a recent snapshot of the odds (sorted by pole position)
Hit Show — 33-1
Verifying — 19-1
Two Phil’s — 8-1
Confidence Game — 20-1
Tapit Trice — 6-1
Kingsbarns — 12-1
Reincarnate — 15-1
Mage — 20-1
Disarm — 27-1
Jace’s Road — 39-1
Sun Thunder — 37-1
Angel of Empire — 6-1
Forte — 4-1 BREAKING: SCRATCHED!
Raise Cain — 37-1
Derma Sotogake — 8-1
Rocket Can — 36-1
Cyclone Mischief — 39-1
Mandarin Hero — 26-1
King Russell — 39-1
In the last 5 years (basically since Justify) the odds-on favourite has either placed in the top two (or been disqualified), and I'm tempted to follow along. Still, I think there's still time for an upset that isn't caused by a horse leaving his lane.
Win: Angel of Empire
Place: Forte
Show: Kingsbarns
Super-trifecta 4th place: Raise Cain
Super-trifecta 4th place after the disqualification: Confidence Game
Fire up the mint juleps and call up the KFC delivery, it's time for some horses!
