149th Run for the Roses

It's Kentucky Derby day, and you know what that means! Another attempt to predict the winner of the most exciting two minutes in sports.


My choice

Actual result


Mor Spirit, Mohaymen, Nyquist, Lani

Nyquist, Exaggerator, Gun Runner, Mohaymen


Lookin At Lee, State of Honour, Irish War Cry

Always Dreaming, Lookin At Lee, Battle of Midway, Classic Empire


Magnum Moon, Justify, Bolt d’Oro, Audible

Justify, Good Magic, Audible, Instilled Regard


War of Will, Vekoma, Tacitus

Maximum Security, Country House, Code of Honor, Tacitus, Improbable


Rock Your World, Sainthood, Midnight Bourbon, Essential Quality, Known Agenda

Medina Spirit, Mandaloun, Hot Rod Charlie, Essential Quality, O Besos


White Abarrio, Messier, Zandon, Tawny Port, Epicenter

Rich Strike, Epicenter, Zandon, Simplification

Okay, so I'm kind of terrible at this. 2016, my first year at trying, might actually be my best one, with 2018 (ironically) behind it.

So with that in mind, let's try again. Here's a recent snapshot of the odds (sorted by pole position)

Hit Show — 33-1
Verifying — 19-1
Two Phil’s — 8-1
Confidence Game — 20-1
Tapit Trice — 6-1
Kingsbarns — 12-1
Reincarnate — 15-1
Mage — 20-1
Disarm — 27-1
Jace’s Road — 39-1
Sun Thunder — 37-1
Angel of Empire — 6-1
Raise Cain — 37-1
Derma Sotogake — 8-1
Rocket Can — 36-1
Cyclone Mischief — 39-1
Mandarin Hero — 26-1
King Russell — 39-1

In the last 5 years (basically since Justify) the odds-on favourite has either placed in the top two (or been disqualified), and I'm tempted to follow along. Still, I think there's still time for an upset that isn't caused by a horse leaving his lane.

Win: Angel of Empire
Place: Forte
Show: Kingsbarns
Super-trifecta 4th place: Raise Cain
Super-trifecta 4th place after the disqualification: Confidence Game

Fire up the mint juleps and call up the KFC delivery, it's time for some horses!