We aren't missing many April patio days

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This meme (itself a copy of a March one) has been making the rounds. I'm not really sure why, other than inertia. Other than this past week I wouldn't have called April 2020 particularly nice compared to April 2019.

But memories can be wrong so I double checked. Nope. In 2020 though the daytime high of 20.1°C on Monday was higher than any high in 2019^†, the average high in April 2020 for Edmonton was +3.8 (std dev 8.53) while the average high in April 2019 was 11.3 (std dev 3.79). In fact every day^† in April 2019 was above zero, while April 1st 2020 was -11 as the daytime high. I didn't graph the lows (for technical reasons) but the average April 2019 low was -0.1 (std dev 2.28) with the April 2020 low of -6.25 (std dev 7.80)



But as we've long known, the "centre of the universe" is the only place that matters: when Toronto is above average the whole country has to see news articles about the horrors of global warming. When Toronto is below average the whole country has to see news articles about how hard done by they are. So maybe over there the meme is true? I remember seeing Weather Network coverage about their horrible weather a week or two ago, but that could just be recency bias. So let's repeat the exercise for the Big Smoke.



The data bars don't look as "clean" as they do with Edmonton despite significantly less variability, but there is a little bit of truth to the statement. Last year the average daytime high was +8.7 (std dev 3.99), and this year the average daytime high is 9.4 (std dev 3.02). But for the lows (probably not as important, the only people who are out in that weather is the homeless which can't be more than 84% of the overall Toronto population) it was colder this year as well: 2.6 (std dev 2.36) overnight lows in 2019, 1.8 (std dev 2.29) overnight lows in 2020.

^† For the purpose of this post both "months" are only the first 21 days of April

But let's be honest, the meme says "every other year". So what are the averages like for each city?




Well Edmonton is 6 degrees below average (10.1, 1.87 std dev) and Toronto is still about a degree below average (10.3, 1.50 std dev). Is it weird that the average highs are so similar? A little. Regardless, you may think things are way too warm outside with all this going on. It really isn't.