Are most COVID-19 deaths just regular 2020 deaths moved up a few weeks?

A few weeks ago Martok and I were looking at the Wuhan Flu compared to Canada's leading causes of death. We were unimpressed.

The Toronto Star, by contrast, is particularly impressed:

The coronavirus now ranks as one of the most deadly diseases in Canada, according to statistics analyzed by the Star.

On average, forty people a day have succumbed to the virus since the first death was recorded in British Columbia on March 8. That number puts the virus third after cancer and heart disease in terms of daily deaths.

In total, the virus has killed 1,758 Canadians since the pandemic began, ranking it 12th on the list of most deadly diseases by year.

That's a scary sounding article. However, the brutal fact remains: this virus (with a few notable and tragic exceptions) kills (and maims!?!)people who were already at an increased risk of dying.

The British Office for National Statistics noted that 9 out of 10 deaths from the Wuhan Flu happened to people at "heightened risk of death". One of the statistical modellers at Imperial College London believes 2/3rds of people in Britain who died from COVID-19 so far would have died in the next short period anyways. In fact, of the 6,000 "excess" weekly deaths in the UK 2,500 weren't related to COVID but instead related to people not seeking treatment for non-COVID medical conditions. In other words, the cure may already be competing with the disease for deaths: once the UK recession hits 6.4% then it's apparently no longer "worth it". Save that info for future reference, kids.

Back to this side of the pond, Canadian coronavirus deaths look like this:


131.75 x 366 (it's a leap year, remember) gives us 48,220 deaths, 3rd place in Canada just like Toronto Star said. End of story, right?

But wait: Canada should have 6,235 flu deaths in 2020. Were any of these Wuhan Flu deaths going to be the same people who would have gotten Bird Flu? 6,838 diabetes deaths a year is sure high, though, and wait Wuhan Flu is very good at killing people with severe diabetes. Likewise the 12,293 people expected to die from respiratory ailments, 51,396 with heart disease and a good chunk of the 79,084 cancer deaths. As COVID rips through nursing homes are we going to see the same effect?

The Star analysis looks very impressive and scary with all other things remaining equal. But are other things remaining equal? Of course not: while the Wuhan Flu is certainly going to come with a large number of deaths, many of them unique to this virus, we're probably going to similarly find in Canada that "excess deaths" caused by our overreaction to COVID-19 is going to outweigh "excess deaths" caused by COVID killing people who weren't already on death's door.