Stanley Cup 2016

As I type this, the third period is underway in San Jose, CA. The Penguins have a 2-1 lead and just need to hold onto that lead for three more minutes (until the final buzzer) and they win the Stanley Cup.

April 13th seems so long ago, doesn't it? That's the day I posted my Stanley Cup predictions, and let's be charitable and say I wasn't wholly accurate. But how inaccurate? Let's take a look.

Western Conference:

There were four Western Conference divisional semifinal series, and I predicted the Dallas Stars would defeat the Minnesota North Stars Wild in 5 games. They took six. So let's put my efficiency for that series (and the playoffs in total) so far at 83%. I also correctly predicted that the St Louis Blues would defeat the Chicago Blackhawks in seven games. That puts my in-series efficiency at 100%, and so splitting the difference over two series I was at 92% accuracy. Pretty good, eh? Yeah, I went downhill fast from there. San Jose beat the Los Angeles Kings, while the Nashville Predators beat the Los Angeles Mighty Ducks of Anaheim. That's two 0% efficiency series, dropping me fast to 46% efficiency.

In the second round, I said the St. Louis Blues would defeat the Dallas Stars in 4 games, and they also took the full 7. That series is 57% accurate, and I'm at 0% again in the other western series: I didn't think Nashville or San Jose would even be in there. Finally, in the Western Conference Final I correctly identified the Blues would lose in 6 games though I obviously got their opponent wrong. 50% accuracy there, let's say.

There are a total of 7 series in each conference, and my efficiency was 83,100,0,0,57,0,50, for a Western Conference accuracy rate of 43%.

Eastern Conference:

Again, four opening series in the first round. I first predicted that Washington would defeat Philadelphia in only 5 games, it again took six giving me 83% efficiency. I predicted the NY Rangers would defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins in 7 games, and obviously Pittsburgh did slightly better than that. I did correctly predict that the NY Islanders would defeat the Florida Panthers in 6 games. I also correctly predicted that the Tampa Bay Lightning would defeat the Detroit Red Wings, though my accuracy was only 71% as I thought it would take 7 games rather than 5.

In the second round I predicted the Washington Capitals would be defeated, though I obviously got both the opponent (Pittsburgh, not New York) and the number of games (6, not 5) wrong, for a 42% efficiency rating. I did guess the number of games right in the other series, but I thought that the Islanders would defeat the Tampa Bay Lightning rather than the other way around for a 0% efficiency rating. Finally, I was 0% in the conference final since I had both teams completely wrong.

For the 7 games in the Eastern Conference, therefore, my efficiency was 83,0,100,71,42,0,0, for an Eastern Conference accuracy of 42%.

League-wide:

I predicted that the Los Angeles Kings would defeat the New York Rangers in 6 games, scoring a total of only 19 goals. Instead, 26 goals have been scored already with 3:01 time left in Game 6, and obviously neither team was present making my guess 0% for the final as well. With 15 series to play, I averaged 39% efficiency with my predictions.

Not bad, not bad. How did you do? Comment below.